STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIAL TENSION FACTORS IN RUSSIA

Klimenko, Kirill; Kudrov, Alexander; Gavrilets, Yuriy

English

Home>Issue 1>STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIAL TENSION FACTORS IN RUSSIA

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIAL TENSION FACTORS IN RUSSIA

Table of contents

Annotation Estimate Publication content

References Comments

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIAL TENSION FACTORS IN RUSSIA

Annotation

PII

S042473880000616-6-1

Publication type

Article

Status

Published

Authors

Kirill Klimenko Send message Alexander Kudrov

ORCID: 0000-0003-2495-5496

Yuriy Gavrilets

ORCID: 0000-0002-5903-8674

Edition

Volume 52 Issue 1

Pages

45-66

Abstract

The behavior of the mass of the Russian population in the form of protest movements is discussed and analyzed. The hypothesis of political causation for the protests by terms of socio-economic life isn’t rejected. The empirical basis of the study are the data on protest activity of the population in 2011-2012 years, formed on the basis of printed and electronic federal and regional media as well as the content of social networking in Internet. It rantains mathematical and statistical analysis of various forms of public discontent and protests of various kinds. Two integral indexes are obtained from the principal component analysis: the index of social tension, which accumulates all kinds of protests, and index of social dissatisfaction, and which reflects all forms of discontent. The numerical values of these indices allow a comparison and ranking of different regions of Russia on the socio-political and economic environment. There is a statistically significant linear relationship shown between the two indices. The found regression makes it possible to carry out a conditional forecast of changes in social tension with changing certain indicators of social and economic discontent of the population.

Keywords

regions, protest movements, protests, social tensions, social discontent, the quality of living, the principal component analysis, regression analysis, conditional forecast

Date of publication

01.01.2016

Number of purchasers

Views

987

Readers community rating

0.0 (0 votes)

Cite Download pdf

GOST	Gavrilets Y., Klimenko K., Kudrov A. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIAL TENSION FACTORS IN RUSSIA // Economics and the Mathematical Methods. – 2016. – V. 52. – Issue 1 C. 45-66 .
MLA	Gavrilets, Yuriy, Klimenko, Kirill, Kudrov, Alexander "STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIAL TENSION FACTORS IN RUSSIA." Economics and the Mathematical Methods. 52.1 (2016).:45-66.
APA	Gavrilets Y., Klimenko K., Kudrov A. (2016). STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIAL TENSION FACTORS IN RUSSIA. Economics and the Mathematical Methods. vol. 52, no. 1, pp.45-66


1

References

Additional sources and materials

Ajvazyan S., Bukhshtaber V., Enyukov I., Meshalkin L. (1989). Prikladnaya statistika. Klassifikatsiya i snizhenie razmernosti. M.: Finansy i statistika.

Gavrilets Yu.N. (2014). Komp'yuternaya model' ideologicheskogo protivostoyaniya dvukh sil v obschestve // Ehkonomika i matematicheskie metody. T. 50. № 3. S. 73-85.

Gubanov D.A., Novikov D.A., Chkhartishvili A.G. (2010). Sotsial'nye seti: modeli informatsionnogo vliyaniya, upravleniya i protivoborstva. M.: Fizmatlit.

Sobolev A. S. (2013). Faktory kollektivnogo dejstviya: sluchaj massovykh protestov v Rossii 2011-2012 gg. Preprint WP1/2012/05. M.: Vysshaya shkola ehkonomiki.

Baldassarri D., Be arm an P.S. (2007). Dynamics of Political Polarization // American Sociological Review. Vol. 72 (5). R. 784-811.

Cottle S. (2011). Reporting the Arab Uprisings: Notes // Research' Journalism: Theory, Practice and Criticism. Vol. 12(5). R. 647-659.

Groshek J., Dimitrova D. (2011). A Cross Section of Voter Learning, Campaign Interest and Intention to Vote in the 2008 Presidential Election: Did Web 2.0 Matter? // Communication Studies. Vol. 9. R. 355-375.

Holland P.W., Welsch R.E. (1977). Robust Regression Using Iteratively Reweighted Least-Squares // Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods. Vol. 1(1). R. 813-827.

Howard P.N., Parks M.R. (2012). Social media and political change: Capacity, constraint, and consequence. Journal of Communication, 62, 359-362.

Kaufhold K., Valenzuela S., Zuniga H.G. de (2010). Citizen Journalism and Democracy: How User-Generated News Use Relates to Political Knowledge and Participation // Journalism and Mass Communication

Quarterly. Vol. 87(3-4) (Autumn/Winter). R. 515-529.

Swigger N. (2012). The Online Citizen: Is Social Media Changing Citizens’ Beliefs about Democratic Values? Political Behavior. 18. DOI: 10.1007/s11109-012-9208-y