ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXPANSION OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS
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ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXPANSION OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS
Annotation
PII
S042473880000616-6-1
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Pages
60-74
Abstract
A disequilibrium theoretical model of long-term economic dynamics, which considers availability of an aggregated resource and satisfaction of needs in specific outputs, is tested against the expansion of surface transportation networks. The 1871-2013 time series of the length of the USA railroads, highways, pawed roads, surfaced roads and total automobile roads, some of which lack numerous observations, are used for the empirical testing. Two incomplete non-linear auto-regression empirical specifications are applied, which differ in the lag duration (one year and 13 years). The both are estimated using generalized maximum entropy (GME) procedure, which is enriched with the endogenous supporting values for the parameter estimates. For the purpose of testing hypotheses a non-parametric criterion of statistical indiscriminability of two series (reference and compared) is developed, using an area of intersect of polygons of empirical distributions as a critical value. The empirical specification assuming one year lag supports the proposed theoretical model...
Keywords
surface transportation networks, disequilibrium model, GME, technological structure, investment lag
Date of publication
01.04.2016
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0
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76
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