Discovery of Regularities of Changes of Technological Orders in the Central Economic and Mathematics Institute of the Soviet Academy of Sciences
Table of contents
Share
Metrics
Discovery of Regularities of Changes of Technological Orders in the Central Economic and Mathematics Institute of the Soviet Academy of Sciences
Annotation
PII
S042473880000277-3-1
DOI
10.31857/S042473880000655-9
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Sergey Glazyev 
Occupation: academician
Affiliation: Russian Academy of Science
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Pages
17-30
Abstract

The article relates the history of the discovery of the periodic change of technological structures’ regularities in the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Soviet Academy of Sciences. It tells about its theoretical prerequisites and scientists who worked in this field. The author offers a brief description of this regularity and points to its manifestations in dynamics of various economic indicators. Moreover, he demonstrates the conditionality of technological life cycles of the corresponding Kondratiev’s long waves, as well as of the periodically occurring structural crises and depressions in the world and national economies. Finally, the author explains the importance of this discovery for the formation of an optimal policy of the long-term economic development.

Keywords
Technological structure, long waves, reproduction, technological set, economic development, economic growth, structural changes, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of Academy of Sciences of the USSR, the cycle of capital accumulation
Received
28.09.2018
Date of publication
10.10.2018
Number of purchasers
5
Views
514
Readers community rating
0.0 (0 votes)
Cite Download pdf 100 RUB / 1.0 SU

To download PDF you should sign in

Full text is available to subscribers only
Subscribe right now
Only article
100 RUB / 1.0 SU
Whole issue
0 RUB / 0.0 SU
All issues for 2018
1267 RUB / 50.0 SU

Publication text not found

References

1. Avtonomov V. (2000). Istoriya ehkonomicheskikh uchenij. M.: Infra-M.

2. Andrukovich P. (1973). Primenenie metoda glavnykh komponent v prakticheskikh issledovaniyakh. M.: Izd-vo Moskovskogo universiteta. Vyp. 36.

3. Varshavskij A.E. (1984). Nauchno-tekhnicheskij progress v modelyakh ehkonomicheskogo razvitiya. M.: Finansy i statistika.

4. Glaz'ev S. (1985). Metody otsenki dinamicheskikh kharakteristik NTP // Izvestiya AN SSSR. Seriya ehkonomicheskaya. № 1.

5. Glaz'ev S. (1986a). NTP i vosproizvodstvennye struktury v narodnom khozyajstve. Preprint. M.: TsEhMI AN SSSR.

6. Glaz'ev S. (1986b). Problemy khozyajstvennogo mekhanizma upravleniya nauchno-tekhnicheskim protsessom. Preprint. M.: TsEhMI AN SSSR.

7. Glaz'ev S. (1986g). Ehkonomicheskie izmereniya tekhnicheskogo razvitiya narodnogo khozyajstva. Avtoref. diss. na soiskanie stepeni kand. ehkon. nauk. M.

8. Glaz'ev S. (1993). Teoriya dolgosrochnogo tekhniko-ehkonomicheskogo razvitiya. M.: VlaDar.

9. Glaz'ev S. (2007). Razvitie rossijskoj ehkonomiki v usloviyakh global'nykh tekhnologicheskikh sdvigov. Nauchnyj doklad. M.: Natsional'nyj institut razvitiya.

10. Glaz'ev S. (2010). Strategiya operezhayuschego razvitiya Rossii v usloviyakh global'nogo krizisa. M.: Ehkonomika.

11. Glaz'ev S. (2016). Poslednyaya mirovaya vojna. SShA nachinayut i proigryvayut. M.: Knizhnyj mir.

12. Glaz'ev S.Yu. (2017). Ehkonomika buduschego. Est' li u Rossii shans? M.: Knizhnyj mir.

13. Glaz'ev S.Yu., Kharitonov V.V. (red.) (2009). Nanotekhnologii kak klyuchevoj faktor novogo tekhnologicheskogo uklada v ehkonomike. M.: Trovant.

14. Grubler A. (2002). Innovatsii i ehkonomicheskij rost. M.: Nauka.

15. Danilov-Danil'yan V.I., Ryvkin A.A. (1982). Vosproizvodstvennyj aspekt ehkonomicheskogo razvitiya i nekotorye problemy upravleniya // Ehkonomika i matematicheskie metody. T. XX. Vyp. 1.

16. Dement'ev V.E. (2009a). Tekhnologicheskie sdvigi i al'ternativnost' ehkonomicheskogo razvitiya. V sb.: “Teoriya i praktika institutsional'nykh preobrazovanij v Rossii”. Vyp. 13. M.: TsEhMI RAN. S. 6—21.

17. Dement'ev V.E. (2009b). Dogonyayuschee razvitie cherez prizmu teorii “dlinnovolnovoj” tekhnologicheskoj dinamiki: aspekt “okon vozmozhnostej” v krizisnykh usloviyakh // Rossijskij ehkonomicheskij zhurnal. № 1—2. S. 34—48.

18. Komkov N.I. (1978). Model' upravleniya nauchnymi issledovaniyami i razrabotkami. M.: Nauka.

19. Kondrat'ev N.D. (1991). Osnovnye problemy ehkonomicheskoj statiki i dinamiki: Predvaritel'nyj ehskiz. M.: Nauka.

20. Kondrat'ev N.D. (2002). Bol'shie tsikly kon'yunktury i teoriya predvideniya. Yakovets Yu.V. (sost.). M.: Ehkonomika.

21. Lukas R.Eh. (2013). Lektsii po ehkonomicheskomu rostu (Lectures on Economic Growth). M.: Izd-vo Instituta im. Gajdara.

22. L'vov D.S., Glaz'ev S.Yu. (1986). Teoreticheskie i prikladnye aspekty upravleniya NTP // Ehkonomika i matematicheskie metody. T. 22. Vyp. 5. S. 793—804.

23. L'vov D.S., Glaz'ev S.Yu. (1987). Strukturnaya politika tekhnicheskogo razvitiya. V sb.: “Metodologiya otsenki ehffektivnosti obschestvennogo proizvodstva”. M.: TsEhMI AN SSSR.

24. Makarov V.L., Ajvazyan A.A., Afanas'ev A.A., Bakhtizin A.R., Nanavyan A.M. (2016). Modelirovanie razvitiya ehkonomiki regiona i ehffektivnost' prostranstva innovatsij // Forsajt. T. 1. № 3. S. 76—90.

25. Mal'tus T.R. (2000). Opyt o zakone narodonaseleniya. Kn. I, gl. 1. V kn.: Avtonomov V. “Istoriya ehkonomicheskikh uchenij”. M.: Infra-M.

26. Marks K., Ehngel's F. (1962). Sochineniya. 2-e izd. T. 26. M.: Gosudarstvennoe izdatel'stvo politicheskoj literatury.

27. Marshall A. (1993). Printsipy ehkonomicheskoj nauki. T. 1. S. 208. M.: Progress.

28. Mikerin G., Glaz'ev S., Teslya P. (1991). Dlinnye volny: NTP i sotsial'no-ehkonomicheskoe razvitie. Novosibirsk: Nauka. Sibirskoe otdelenie.

29. Sakhal D. (1985). Tekhnicheskij progress: kontseptsii, modeli, otsenki. M.: Finansy i statistika.

30. Smit A. (2007). Issledovanie o prirode i prichinakh bogatstva narodov. Seriya: Antologiya ehkonomicheskoj mysli. M.: Ehksmo.

31. Solou R. (1996). Perspektivy teorii rosta // Mirovaya ehkonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. № 8. S. 69—77.

32. Fedorenko N.P. (1968). O razrabotke sistemy optimal'nogo funktsionirovaniya ehkonomiki. TsEhMI AN SSSR. M.: Nauka.

33. Shumpeter Ĭ. (1982). Teoriya ehkonomicheskogo razvitiya. M.: Progress.

34. Yaremenko Yu.V. (1981). Strukturnye izmeneniya v sotsialisticheskoj ehkonomike. M.: Mysl'.

35. Dosi G. (1982). Technological Paradigms and Technological Trajectories. A Suggested Interpretation of the Determinants and Directions of Technical Change // Research Policy. Vol. 11 (3). P. 147—162.

36. Dosi G., Freeman C., Fabiani S. (1994). The Process of Economic Development: Introducing Some Stylized Facts and Theories on Technologies, Firms and Institutions // Industrial and Corporate Change. Vol. 3 (1). P. 1—45.

37. Freeman C. (1987). Technical Innovation, Diffusion, and Long Cycles of Economic Development. In: “The LongWave Debate”. Vasko T. (ed.). P. 295—309.

38. Freeman C. (ed.) (1996). Long Wave Theory. Vol. XXXVI. Cheltenham, Brookfield: E. Elgarpubl.

39. Kuznets S. (1930). Secular Movements in Production and Prices: Their Nature and Their Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

40. Kuznets S. (1968). Toward a Theory of Economic Growth, with Reflections on the Economic Growth of Modern Nations. N.Y.: W.W. Norton & Co.

41. Marchetti C., Nakicenovic N. (1979). The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model. RR-79-13. Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

42. Mensch G. (1975). Das technologische Patt: Innovationen überwinden die Depression. Frankfurt am Main: Umschau. Verlag.

43. Nelson R.R., Romer P.M. (1996). Science, Economic Growth and Public Policy // Challenge, March — April. P. 9—21.

44. Nelson R.R., Winter S.G. (1982). An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. P. 72—136.

45. Perez C. (2002). Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages. London: Elgar.

46. Soloy R. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol. 70. No. 1.

47. Soloy R. (1985). The Input of Growth. In: Mokyr J. “The Economics of the Industrial Revolution”. London: Allen & Unwin.